Q4 in Logistics Starts in August, Not November

In this episode of Rozmowy Logistyków, Piotr Skobało explains how to prepare a warehouse for the fourth quarter before it's too late. He sorts the preparations not by importance, but by lead time — because in August, that's the only criterion that has any practical relevance.

AN EMPLOYEE BEING READY ISN'T THE SAME AS BEING HIRED

A new picking employee doesn't enter the process at 100% productivity from day one. Skobało describes his own model for ramping up productivity: 50% in the first two weeks, 75% over the next two, full productivity only after that. Without a multiplier like this, the number of temporary staff you calculate you need comes out too low — and a conversation with controlling about "why do you need 50 temps if you train them in an hour" ends badly for staffing plans.

FIRM VOLUME COMMITMENTS TO CARRIERS

Even with leading LTL and FTL carriers, goods will wait if a volume commitment wasn't made in writing beforehand, broken down by week — trucks, like a warehouse, "aren't made of rubber." It's also worth having a backup in case your main carrier fails: a signed framework agreement with a backup agency, not just preliminary talks — because the legal department can be a bottleneck in itself, with weeks of waiting for a contract review.

RESLOTTING WHILE THERE'S STILL TIME

The ABC structure from July doesn't match the one from November, so this is the last moment to find out about planned sales campaigns and changes to product categories, and move the fastest-turning items as close as possible to the shipping zones — the so-called golden zone. Travel time usually accounts for 40-60% of picking time, so this is one of the few things you can cut without investment or adding headcount.

THE BOTTLENECK IS MORE OFTEN IN PACKING THAN PICKING

Attention usually focuses on picking, because that's where dozens or hundreds of people work, but packing and shipping zones tend to be physically smaller — because space was "saved" there to fit in more racking — and they're usually the first to clog up once volume doubles.

A WRITTEN SALES FORECAST, NOT ONE FROM THE HALLWAY

A forecast from the sales department always arrives too late and is always optimistic — that's not a matter of sales acting in bad faith, just a lack of a formal process. A verbal statement overheard "in the hallway" gives you no basis for staffing plans; only a written forecast, broken down by week with a response deadline, lets you later account for it to the board if actual volume turns out 30-40% higher than assumed.

KEY PEOPLE'S VACATIONS, AND JANUARY RETURNS

A shift supervisor or WMS administrator on vacation at the turn of October and November is a risk worth eliminating in advance — Skobało even mentions the practice of paying bonuses to key people specifically for not taking vacation during peak season. It's just as easy to forget about the January wave of returns, which in e-commerce can be a second seasonal peak, but rarely has planned staffing, because in the budget "January means we're not selling anymore, so we cut."

FOUR CLOSING CHECK QUESTIONS

The episode closes with a four-question checklist: what volume are you assuming, and where does that number come from — if the answer is "roughly like last year," that's not a forecast, it's hope; what is your real, repeatable daily throughput at current staffing, not your single-day record; where will the first bottleneck break if the peak comes in 30-40% above forecast; and who formally makes the decision about an extra shift or additional hiring, so it doesn't depend on whichever third party happens to be around.